The Runaway Train: Blackburn’s 53-Point Lead Reshapes Tennessee’s 2026 Governor’s Race

Originally published on the Beacon Center website

Today, we released the latest installment of the Beacon Poll, a statewide survey of 1,200 Tennessee voters featuring questions about voters’ views on energy sources and production in Tennessee, the condition of roads and what revenue sources could be used to improve them, and political approval ratings at the state and federal level.

As the gubernatorial primaries draw near, Marsha Blackburn continues to expand her already commanding lead in the Republican primary. Blackburn now garners 63% of the vote, up from 56% in January, giving her a 53-point lead over Congressman John Rose (10%) and a 58-point lead over state Rep. Monty Fritts (5%).

On the Democratic side, the most popular candidate by far is “Not Sure” at 62%, leaving the field wide open. Jerri Green has a slight edge over the rest of the field at 14%, followed closely by Kevin Lee McCants (11%) and Carnita Atwater (8%). While Green currently has only a 3-point lead, she is nearly a 90% favorite to win the primary, according to Polymarket.

In this year’s first hypothetical general election matchup for governor, with the candidates chosen based on current Polymarket odds, Senator Blackburn opens with a massive 24-point lead on Democratic frontrunner Jerri Green.

President Trump’s approval rating in Tennessee continues to drop and is now at its lowest level since Beacon began conducting this poll in 2023. While he remains above water, his +8% net approval is a far cry from his 30-point win in Tennessee in 2024. Independents have soured on his job performance (-21%), a major reason for his declining approval rating in the state.

Governor Bill Lee, on the other hand, has seen his approval rating improve since the last Beacon Poll, with 55% approving of his job performance and 37% disapproving (+18%). Lee remains very popular among Republicans (+62%), underwater among Democrats (-37%), and split among Independents (+1%).

There has been a lot of discussion in the national media about whether states should require an ID to vote, and Tennesseans have made their position clear. A strong majority of voters (84%) support requiring a valid photo ID before casting a ballot in any state or local election, while just 13% oppose. The measure is almost universally supported by Republicans (+93%), but it also has solid support among Democrats (+44%) and Independents (+64%).

A slimmer but still large majority (+52%) back the proposed federal SAVE Act, which would require proof of citizenship to register to vote, mandate verified citizenship documentation, remove non-citizens from voting rolls, and require states to share unredacted voting rolls with the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. The SAVE Act likely performs worse than voter ID because of the plan’s additional details.

Tennesseans are feeling the squeeze on their utility bills. A majority of voters (57%) report that utilities such as electricity, water, gas, and internet account for more than 10% of their monthly budget, the highest option given in the poll. More than three-quarters of voters (77%) say their utility costs have increased over the past year, and 61% describe them as burdensome.

As Tennesseans struggle more and more to afford everyday utilities, a majority express an openness to making it easier to permit and build new nuclear power plants, provided that existing safety regulations remain in place. Fifty-four percent of voters support easier permitting for new nuclear plants, while 32% oppose. Support spans party lines, with Republicans (+33%), Independents (+18%), and Democrats (+5%) all backing the idea.

Despite a lively debate among media talking heads, most Tennesseans (+41%) approve of the U.S. Men’s National Hockey Team being recognized at the State of the Union address for winning the Olympic gold medal. Interestingly, despite some national media discussion of the “controversy,” even a plurality of Democrats (+14%) supported recognizing the team.

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